WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for WTI crude oil is firmly bullish and the move up is poised to challenge crucial resistance at $42.0. This is a highly confluent wave projection, retracement, and swing high. Overcoming $42.0 will invalidate the primary wave down from $44.33 that had called for $32.0 and lower during the past few weeks. Rising above $42.0 will also confirm a long-term bullish reversal is unfolding, clearing the way for $42.8 and likely $44.9.

Nevertheless, when the outlook for WTI has been most positive in recent months the move up has stalled near $42.0 and turned lower to challenge support again. There is no evidence that this will be the case again, but caution is warranted.

Should WTI take out $40.8 before overcoming $42.0 look for a test of $40.0. Support at $40.0 is expected to hold. Key support is $38.8. This is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $37.06 and the 38 percent retracement from $33.64. Closing below $38.8 would imply that another major test of support is underway before the move up attempts to overcome $42.0 again.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for Brent is quite bullish after settling above the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $36.40 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $47.31. This afternoon’s post-settlement rally has overcome the $43.99 swing high and the move up is now poised to test $44.6. This is the last level protecting the $44.67 swing high. Closing above this will clear the way for $45.3 and likely $46.4 during the next few days.

Initial support is $43.1, a move below which will call for $42.4. Support at $42.4 is expected to hold. Key support and the barrier to a bearish near-term outlook is $41.2. Settling below this would shift near-term odds in favor of testing $39.9 and possibly lower before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil has adopted a bullish near-term outlook after settling above $37.7, the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $44.33 and the 50 percent retracement from $41.90. This is also last week’s midpoint.

The move up is now poised to challenge a crucial near-term target at $38.8. This is the 50 percent retracement from $44.33 and the 62 percent retracement from $41.90. Closing above $38.8 would put odds in favor of challenging $40.2 and possibly another test of $42.0. The $42.0 objective defined the upper end of the range that December WTI traded in from early September until late last week.

That said, the move up from $33.64 lacks a wave structure that can sustain a larger move up. There are no reversal patterns or signals as of this afternoon, but a test of support is anticipated before WTI rises much higher.

Should WTI turn lower early tomorrow look for initial support at $36.5 and then $36.0. Key near-term sport is $35.3. Closing below this will call for another test of $34.8, the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $44.33, which has held on a closing basis so far.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent tested and held $40.0 on a closing basis today. This was near the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $47.31. Even so, the move up is poised to continue because today’s close above last Thursday’s open confirmed Friday’s bullish high wave candlestick reversal pattern. Today’s move up also confirmed daily bullish KaseCD and KasePO divergences. Therefore, odds favor a continued rise to $40.8, a crucial near-term objective that connects to $41.5 and $42.9.

Nevertheless, Brent is due for a test of support before rising much higher. Holding $40.0 suggests such a move might take place early tomorrow. Support at $38.6 is expected to hold and $37.4 is key. Settling below $37.4 would shift near-term odds back in favor of a larger decline.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI remains bearish. Although WTI bounced today and settled above yesterday’s midpoint, the move up failed to close above yesterday’s open and held the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $41.9 at $39.7 on a closing basis. Also, the wave formation up from $38.28 stalled just below its larger than (1.618) target and this afternoon’s post-settlement decline has challenged the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $38.28. Finally, yesterday’s close below $38.8, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $42.02, has put odds in favor of testing the $36.8 equal to (1.00) target. This is in line with the double bottom that formed between the $37.11 and $36.93 swing lows. Therefore, closing below $36.8 will take out the double bottom and clear the way for a much more significant test of support.

That said, each time WTI has looked most bearish (or bullish) since early September the move has stalled and WTI has oscillated within the range between nominally $37.0 and $42.0. Also, given today’s close above yesterday’s midpoint, there is an outside chance for a larger test of resistance before WTI falls to challenge $36.8. Closing above $39.7 will call for key resistance at $40.5. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $41.9. Settling above $40.9 will shift near-term odds back in favor of rising to $41.4 and eventually $42.0 where the $42.02 confirmation point of the double bottom would be tested.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for Brent is bearish after today’s move up held the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $43.57 at $41.5. The post-settlement decline implies that today’s move up is corrective of the recent decline. Tomorrow, look for a test of $40.2, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $44.3. Settling below this will clear the way for $39.4 and then $38.6.

Resistance at $41.5 should continue to hold. Closing above this will call for a test of key near-term resistance and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $43.57 at $42.3. Settling above $42.3 is doubtful but would shift odds in favor of $43.2 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish. For the past few weeks, December WTI has been stuck in a wide range between nominally $37.0 and $42.0 and formed a double bottom around $37.0. Last week, prices oscillated within a smaller range between approximately $39.4 and $41.7. This was in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $44.33 and was just below the $42.02 confirmation point of the double bottom.

Today, December WTI broke higher out of this small recent range but stalled at $41.90. The break higher was bullish for the outlook though, and the move up is poised to reach $42.3 during the next couple of days. This is the most confluent objective on the chart. Setting above $42.3 will establish a bullish uptrend because this will confirm the double bottom, which targets $47.0, and also invalidate the primary wave down from $44.33 that had taken out its $37.6 smaller than (0.618) target a few weeks ago.

With that said, the late throwback from $41.90 back into the recent range between $39.4 and $41.7 reflects uncertainty and suggests a test of $40.5 might take place first. Falling below $40.5 will take out a few of the smaller waves that call for $42.3 and higher. This will also call for a test of $40.0. Support at $40.0 is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $36.93 and is expected to hold. Closing below $40.0 will call for key near-term support at $39.4, a close below which will shift odds in favor of testing $38.8 and possibly lower.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent rose a bit higher today but its move up has been more hesitant than WTI’s. Nevertheless, the decline from $43.57 forms a corrective range that should break higher soon. Also, $43.3 was met, so the wave formations now call for a test of $43.8. This then connects to $44.4 and higher.

The $43.3 target was quite important for the near-term outlook, so the throwback from this objective late this afternoon is not surprising. Support at $42.2 is expected to hold and $41.4 is key for the near-term. Settling below $41.4 is doubtful but would reflect a bearish shift in external factors and call for $40.5 and possibly lower in the coming days.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.