Gold Price Forecast – November 14, 2024

Author: Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold fell below the $2565 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2801.8, the $2549 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2718.3, the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8, and the 100-day moving average today. Gold settled below the 50 percent retracement. Otherwise, the other important support targets held on a closing basis and a daily hammer formed. Daily bullish KasePO and KaseCD momentum divergence signals and an oversold KasePO PeakOut signal also formed at the $2541.5 swing low on the $10 Kase Bar chart.

The outlook for gold remains bearish and closing below $2555 will call for a test of the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8 at $2527. Settling below this will open the way for the next highly confluent target at $2503.

Nevertheless, given the confluence of support in the area tested today, a correction might occur first. Today’s hammer and the confirmation of intra-day bullish momentum signals also suggest that such a move will probably take place first. A move up will likely be a correction but there is a good chance for a test of $2595 first. This is the smaller than target of the current wave up from $2541.5 and overcoming this will call for a test of at least the $2610 equal to (1.00) target. The $2610 level will likely hold. Rising above $2610 would call for key near-term resistance at $2639 to be challenged.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December natural gas initially fell to test and hold the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.514 and the 20-day moving average at $2.82. Prices then rallied and natural gas settled above the $2.95 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $2.514. This wave, and the subwave up from $2.643, now call for a test of $3.07 within the next day or so. This is a crucial objective because $3.07 is the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $2.514, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.643, the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.959, and the 62 percent retracement from $3.406. The $3.07 objective is also near the XC (2.764) projection of the wave up from the $1.856 double bottom on the continuation chart. Settling above $3.07 might initially be a challenge but will open the way for natural gas to rise to $3.14 and higher.

Nevertheless, the $3.013 swing high held and prices settled below the psychologically important $3.00 level. Should natural gas fall again and take out the $2.89 smaller than target of the wave down from $3.013 look for another attempt to close below $2.82. This is now the equal to target of the wave down from $3.013. Settling below $2.82 would warn that the move up is failing and call for a test of $2.76 and possibly $2.71 in the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil settled below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $66.72 and the 20- and 50-day moving averages on Monday. The move down is poised to challenge the $67.3 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $80.95. Taking out a minor target at $67.8 early tomorrow will clear the way for a test of $67.3. Settling below $67.3 will confirm a bearish outlook and call for the $66.1 smaller than target of the wave down from $77.7 to be challenged within the next few days.

That said, today’s long-legged doji reflects a bit of near-term uncertainty and warns that a test of Monday’s $69.2 midpoint might take place first. Closing above $69.2 will complete the long-legged doji and settling above $70.3 will confirm the pattern. This would warn that the move down is failing again and call for a test of key near-term resistance and the smaller than target of the wave up from $66.72 at $71.7.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose after Wednesday’s significant decline. The 78 percent retracement of the rise from $2618.8 and the 50-day moving average were tested early but the move down stalled at $2650.3 before rising to challenge Wednesday’s $2715 midpoint. This level held and prices settled below the 20-day moving average again.

Today’s rise dampens the likelihood of a deeper test of support in the coming days. Even so, the daily Kase Trend indicator is bearish and weekly bearish KaseCD and MACD divergences will likely be confirmed unless gold can overcome the $2801.8 on Friday. Therefore, the near-term outlook continues to lean bearish, and taking out $2672 will call for a test of $2652. Settling below $2652 will call for a key objective at $2626 to be challenged. The $2626 objective is the smaller than (0.618) target of the new primary wave down from $2801.8, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8, and the last target protecting the last major swing low of $2618.8. Settling below $2626 will indicate that a major test of support is finally underway.

Nevertheless, there is a good chance for a test of the 20-day moving average at $2730 early Friday. Overcoming this will call for the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2801.8 at $2744 and possibly a test of key near-term resistance at $2763. The $2763 level is the smaller than target of the wave up from $2618.8. Settling above this will imply that the corrective move down is complete and shift the odds in favor of gold rising to new highs next week.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas failed to capitalize on Tuesday’s decline and the close at Monday’s $2.76 midpoint. Monday’s initial gap down was likely an exhaustion pattern and was followed by the formation of a daily bullish engulfing line that helped to confirm daily bullish KasePO, KaseCD, RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergences. These patterns and signals indicate that a bullish reversal for the December contract might be underway.

Furthermore, today’s rise to $2.80 suggests that Tuesday’s pullback was the corrective leg of a wave up from $2.514 that projects to $2.84 as the smaller than (0.618) target. Overcoming $2.80 will call for a test of $2.84, a close above which will open the way for $2.88 and then a test of this wave’s $2.96 equal to (1.00) target.

However, this is still a somewhat tight call for the near term. The late move down from $2.796 has taken out the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.651. The small wave down from $2.796 makes a connection to the $2.70 level, which is in line with the 62 percent retracement and smaller than target of the wave down from $2.818. Falling below $2.70 will call for a test of this wave’s $2.63 equal to target. The $2.63 level is key support for the near term because it is also the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.514. Closing below $2.63 will put the near-term odds in favor of prices falling to the $2.57 intermediate (1.382) and $2.53 larger than (1.618) targets.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil rose as expected today and overcame the $72.34 swing high, invalidating a few of the waves down from $77.7 and $75.45 that had called for a continued decline. Prices also overcame the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $66.72 and the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $77.7 at $72.2. This objective held on a closing basis but prices have risen back to $72.2 late this afternoon.

The move up is now poised to challenge the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $77.7 at $73.5 and then the $74.2 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $66.72. Overcoming a minor target at $72.8 will clear the way for tests of $73.5 and $74.2. The $74.2 objective is crucial because it is also in line with the smaller than target of the wave up from $65.99 and the 200-day moving average. Settling above $74.2 should initially be a challenge but would confirm a bullish outlook and call for the $75.2 smaller than target of the new primary wave up from $64.16 to be challenged.

The challenge for WTI crude oil is that each time it has approached a level that would indicate prices will move much higher or lower in recent months a reversal has taken place. This proved to be true at the $67.3 level and could prove to be the case again at $74.2.

Also, because $72.2 held on a closing basis there is a modest chance for a test of support before rising to challenge $73.5 and $74.2. Taking out $70.9 will call for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $66.72 at $70.4. A simple correction should hold $70.4. Falling below this would call for key support at $68.9 to be challenged. This level is key because it is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $66.72 and a decline to $68.9 would take out the $69.32 corrective swing low of the wave up from $66.72 that makes the connection to $74.2 as the equal to target.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold’s move up has been due for a solid test of support for some time now. Weekly momentum has been overbought and daily momentum moved back into overbought territory on the RSI earlier in the week. The bullish trend is intact, but today’s decline and confirmation of bearish daily MACD and RSI divergences suggest that a correction might finally be underway.

The challenge is that a similar pattern that formed on October 23 failed to lead to a meaningful correction.

Regardless, today’s move down was bearish for the near-term outlook, and a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8 at $2732 is expected. Closing below this will call for the 50 percent retracement from $2618.8 and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8 at $2710 to be challenged. This is the most important target because closing below $2710 will take out the 20-day moving average and shift the Kase Trend indicator to bearish (which it has not been since August 16).

That said, prices rose a bit late this afternoon. Should gold overcome today’s $2774 midpoint look for another test of key resistance at $2802. Settling above $2802 will negate the bearish patterns and signals that formed today and put the near-term odds back in favor of gold rising to $2823 and higher.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December natural gas settled a penny lower today and is still in a position to work its way lower in the coming days. The 78 percent retracement of the rise from $2.712 at $2.80 has been resilient and held on a closing basis for the past few days. Another test of $2.80 is expected tomorrow. Falling below this will call for the $2.77 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.919. This wave then connects to $2.72 as the equal to (1.00) target. The $2.72 objective is also in line with the smaller than target of the wave down from $3.101. Settling below $2.72 will clear the way for a move below the $2.712 swing low to challenge the $2.67 smaller than target of the wave down from $3.406.

Nevertheless, a bullish KasePO divergence on the $0.03 Kase Bar chart and the wave up from $2.770 warn that a test of $2.89 might take place first. This level is expected to hold. Overcoming $2.89 will call for key near-term resistance at $2.94 to be challenged. Settling above $2.94 would put the near-term odds in favor of challenging the 62 percent retracement from $3.101 at $2.98 and then the $3.01 smaller than target of the wave up from $2.712.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil gapped lower from $69.96 on Monday and settled below the $67.3 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $80.95 on Tuesday. The 78 percent retracement of the rise from $64.16 has held on a closing basis for the past two days. Even so, the gap down and close below $67.3 reflect bearish sentiment for the coming days and perhaps weeks.

The move down is now poised to test the $66.3 intermediate (1.382) target of the first wave down from $77.7. This is also the smaller than target of the compound wave $77.7 – $68.17 – $72.34. Settling below $66.3 will open the way for a test of $66.6 and then the $64.6 larger than (1.618) target of the first wave down from $77.7.

There are no daily bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall. Nonetheless, the daily Stochastic is nearing oversold territory and a confirmed bullish KasePO divergence and long warning signal on the $0.35 intra-day Kase Bar chart warn that a test of $68.3 might take place first. Overcoming $68.3 would call for a test of $69.0, which is expected to hold. Key resistance for the near term is the top of Monday’s gap down on the daily chart at $70.0. Settling above $70.0 would reflect a bullish shift in near-term sentiment.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

November natural gas rallied late this afternoon to challenge the $2.42 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2.210 and the $2.44 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2.258. Weak daily bullish KasePO PeakOut and RSI oversold signals suggest a bullish reversal, or at least a solid test of resistance, is underway. Tomorrow, look for a test of $2.48 and possibly a key objective at $2.53. Settling above $2.53 will reflect a bullish shift in sentiment and provide more substantial evidence that a reversal will continue to unfold.

That said, until this afternoon’s late rally, the move up from $2.210 had been shallow and choppy. This suggests that the move up may still be a simple correction and that this afternoon’s rally could be a bull trap before the move down extends. Even so, falling to a new low has become doubtful within the next few days and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.210 at $2.35 is expected to hold. Falling below this will call for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $2.30 and possibly key support at $2.26. Taking out $2.26 (more specifically, the $2.258 swing low) will invalidate the wave up from $2.210 which projects to $2.48 and $2.53. In this case, look for prices to fall to $2.21 and lower.