Gold Price Forecast – December 12, 2024

Author: Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold’s move up failed to reach $2772 and stalled at $2761.3. The subsequent pullback and close below Wednesday’s open was bearish for the outlook ahead of the weekend. The decline from $2761.3 is probably a correction that suggests prices may consolidate again because the wave up from $2565 favors an eventual test of its $2808 equal to (1.00) target. However, a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2565 at $2686 is expected first. Closing below $2686 would warn that the move up is failing and call for the 50 and possibly 62 percent retracement at $2663 and $2640 to be challenged in the coming days.

That said, the move down from $2761.3 lacks a clear wave structure to drive prices much lower. Therefore, there is a reasonable chance for a test of $2724 and even $2738 first. The $2738 level is expected to hold. Overcoming $2738 would imply that the pullback was a short-lived correction and call for a test of key near-term resistance at $2771.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rallied today and settled just above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.639. The move up stalled just below the $3.42 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2.977 before pulling back. The $3.42 target is a potential stalling point. Even so, today’s rise was bullish for the outlook in the coming days.

A test of $3.42 is expected. Settling above this will call for a push to challenge the $3.50 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.800. This is also the XC (2.764) projection of the first wave up from $2.977. Settling above $3.50 would confirm a bullish outlook and open the way for $3.56 and then another key objective at $3.64.

Should the pullback from $3.404 extend look for initial support at $3.30. This level will likely hold. Taking out $3.30 will call for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.977 at $3.24 and possibly key near-term support at today’s $3.19 open and the 50 percent retracement.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil continues to trade in a narrowing range. Prices were poised to break lower out of the range coming into the week, but the move down stalled again and prices have risen for the first two days of the week. There is evidence that a larger test of resistance within the range might occur, so this is a tight call. Even so, the move up from $66.98 is likely a correction and the outlook continues to lean bearish and favors an eventual break lower out of the range.

Today’s long-legged doji reflects near-term uncertainty and warns that the corrective move up from $66.98 might already be complete. Taking out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $66.98 and the $67.72 swing low will invalidate the wave up from $66.98 that suggests a larger test of resistance might occur. This will also call for a test of a confluent target at $66.8, a close below which will open the way for a break lower out of the range to test $65.6 and lower.

That said, the wave up from $66.98 met its $68.9 smaller than (0.618) target today. This wave warns that a test of its $69.6 equal to (1.00) target might take place first. To reach $69.6 WTI crude oil must overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $70.51 at $69.2. The $69.6 level, if met, is expected to hold. Overcoming this would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $70.1. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $66.53 and connects to $72.0 and higher.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold failed to rise and challenge the $2704 equal to (1.00) target of the compound wave up from $2629.7 after testing the $2682 smaller than (0.618) target on Wednesday. Instead, prices fell and are poised to take out the $2644.1 and $2644.5 corrective swing lows of the waves up from $2629.7 that still show potential to extend to $2704 and higher. Moreover, the wave down from $2690.5 took out its smaller than target and is positioned to fulfill its $2635 equal to target. This is also the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2565. Settling below $2635 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming days and call for $2615 and then a test of the $2586 smaller than target of the wave down from $2826.

Should gold rise again and overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2682 at $2668 look for another test of $2682. Overcoming this would call for key near-term resistance at $2704 to be challenged.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

January natural gas fell to challenge the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $2.800 at $2.99 and the psychologically important $3.00 level today. The move down stalled at $2.977 and prices rose to form a daily hammer. This candlestick pattern warns that a test of Tuesday’s $3.12 midpoint might occur before the move down extends.

However, a larger move up from $2.977 will likely be a correction because Tuesday’s decline settled below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.800 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $3.656. This wave favors a test of its $2.79 equal to (1.00) target. Settling below $2.99 will call for $2.93 and $2.84, which then make a connection to $2.79.

That said, should natural gas overcome $3.12 look for a test of key near-term resistance at $3.22. This is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.639 and the confirmation point of today’s hammer. Settling above $3.22 and confirming the hammer will shift the near-term odds in favor of testing $3.31 and possibly the 62 percent retracement from $3.639 at $3.39 in the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil continues to trade in a weeks-long range. Each time prices have been positioned to break higher or lower out of the range a reversal has taken place. This happened again today. The wave down from $72.41 fulfilled its $67.9 smaller than (0.618) target and favored an eventual test of its $65.6 equal to (1.00) target. Such a move would have resulted in a break lower out of the range. However, prices rallied today and challenged the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $71.51 at $70.1. This level held on a closing basis but today’s rise confirmed Monday’s inverted hammer and the wave up from $67.71 calls for a test of its $70.7 equal to target. This is also the smaller than target of the wave up from $66.53. Closing above $71.7 will put WTI crude oil back in a position to attempt a break higher out of the range by closing above the $72.7 equal to target of this wave and the wave up from $66.32. The $72.7 objective is also in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $77.04 and the $72.41 confirmation point of a $66.4 double bottom.

Nonetheless, caution is still warranted because until the $71.51 swing high is overcome the wave down from $72.41 will have potential to extend to its $65.6 equal to target. Should the $70.1 level continue to hold and prices fall below the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $67.71 at $69.3 look for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $68.7. Taking out $68.7 will warn that the move up is failing again. Settling below the $67.9 smaller than target of the wave down from $71.51 will confirm this is the case and put the odds back in favor of WTI crude oil falling to $66.4 and $65.6.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

January WTI crude oil continues to trade in a weeks-long range. Each time WTI crude oil has been poised to break higher or lower out of the range a reversal has taken place. This looks to be the case again this week. The move up from the $66.4 double bottom was poised to break higher upon a close above the $72.6 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $66.32. However, Monday’s bearish engulfing line and today’s move below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $66.53 and smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $71.51 around $68.4 imply that another test of the bottom of the range will probably take place in the coming days.

The wave down from $71.51 calls for a test of its $67.4 equal to target. This will push prices below the $67.9 smaller than target of the wave down from $72.41. Settling below $67.9 will clear the way for an eventual test of this wave’s $65.6 equal to target, which is also the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $71.51. The connection to $65.6 is also made through the $66.3 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $71.51, which is in line with the $66.4 double bottom. Therefore, closing below $67.9 will put WTI crude oil in a position to break lower out of the trading range.

That said, the $68.4 target held on a closing basis and prices have risen from the $68.05 swing low this afternoon. The move up from $68.05 is likely a simple correction and is expected to hold the 38 percent retracement from $71.51 at $69.4. Overcoming this would call for a test of the 62 percent retracement and $70.3 swing high. Overcoming $70.3 would invalidate the wave down from $71.51 that calls for $67.4 and lower. This would also call for a test of key near-term resistance and the smaller than target of the wave up from $66.53 at $71.1. Settling above $71.1 would shift the odds in favor of WTI crude oil attempting to break higher out of the range again by settling above $72.8, a threshold that this split between the equal to target of the waves up from $66.32 and $66.53 and above the confirmation point of the $66.4 double bottom.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold rose to challenge the $2672 XC (2.764) projection of the wave up from $2541.5 and the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $2801.8. This is a potential stalling point and there is a reasonable chance for a test of support before the move up extends. Even so, a move down ahead of the weekend will likely be a simple correction because the wave up from $2558.9 also met its $2675 smaller than (0.618) target today. This wave calls for a test of its $2705 equal to (1.00) target, which is in line with the 62 percent retracement from $2801.8. Settling above $2705 will strongly suggest that gold’s corrective pullback from $2801.8 is complete.

Should a correction take place first, look for initial support at $2650 to hold. Falling below this would call for a test of key near-term support at $2625. A normal correction of the rise from $2541.5 will hold $2625. Settling below this will warn that the move up is failing and shift the near-term odds in favor of gold testing the 62 percent retracement at $2593.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December natural gas rallied today and settled well above a key $3.07 target, overcame the last major swing high at $3.101, and challenged another confluence point at $3.21 that held on a closing basis. Daily trend indicators are bullish and the wave formation up from $2.514 calls for a continued rise. The daily Stochastic is overbought but can remain in that state for a long period. Otherwise, there are no daily bearish patterns or signals that call for a reversal.

Overcoming $3.24 will call for a test of the $3.31 larger than (1.618) target of the waves up from $2.643, $2.688, and $2.832. This objective is also in line with the 200-day moving average. This is a point from which a test of support might take place given the confluence of $3.31. Even so, any move down will likely be a correction. This is because the primary wave up from $2.514 settled above its larger than (1.618) target today and now favors an eventual test of the $3.48 XC (2.764) projection. Along the way to $3.48, look for a target at $3.41 that is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.959.

Should a correction take place before overcoming $3.24 look for initial support at $3.13. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the small wave down from $3.229. Falling below this would call for a test of this wave’s larger than target, today’s midpoint, and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2.514 at $3.08. Settling below $3.08 is doubtful but would call for a test of key near-term support at $2.96. This is in line with the 38 percent retracement and today’s open.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Tomorrow’s outlook for January WTI crude oil leans bullish given Monday’s bullish engulfing line. One could also make a case for a double bottom between the $66.32 and $66.53 swing lows. However, the longer-term outlook for WTI crude oil remains bearish and the move up from $66.53 is likely another correction. Furthermore, this is a tight call for tomorrow given today’s lackluster move up and the formation of an intra-day head and shoulders pattern.

The key for a larger test of resistance is an early move above the $69.8 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $68.48. Such a move would negate the head and shoulders pattern and call for a test of this wave’s $70.3 equal to (1.00) target. The $70.3 objective is crucial because it is also the smaller than target of the waves up from $66.32 and $66.53. Closing above $70.3 would call for the $71.3 equal to target of the wave up from $66.53 and then a test of the $72.5 equal to target of the wave up from $66.32. The $72.5 objective is in line with the $72.41 confirmation point of the debatable $66.32/$66.53 double bottom.

That said, falling below $68.5 before rising to $69.8 would confirm the intra-day head and shoulders pattern. Below $68.5 look for support at $67.8. This is the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $69.74 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $66.53. Closing below $67.8 would strongly suggest that the move up from $66.53 is a completed correction. Settling below $67.3, which is in line with this wave’s larger than (1.618) target and the target of the head and shoulders, would confirm a bearish outlook for the coming days.