Gold Price Forecast – January 9, 2025

Author: Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose today and finally settled above the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $2761.3, the 50-day moving average, and the intermediate (1.382) target of the primary wave up from $2596.7. Tomorrow, look for a test of this wave’s $2704 larger than (1.618) target. Settling above $2704 will call for a test of a $2721 bullish decision point that is in line with the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2565. Closing above $2721 should initially be a challenge given this target’s confluence and importance but will confirm a bullish outlook for gold and open the way for $2741, $2771, and then a test of the $2795 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2565.

Nevertheless, the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2608.4 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2761.3 were tested and held today. Prices settled just below this level around $2698, but there are no bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall. Even so, $2698 is a potential stalling point. Should prices pull back look for the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2596.7 at $2659 to hold. Closing below this would call for a test of key near-term support and the 62 percent retracement at $2635.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Volatility remains high for natural gas. Prices failed to test key near-term support at $3.39 today and instead rose to challenge the $3.68 smaller than target of the wave up from $3.330. The $3.68 target held on a closing basis, but today’s close above Tuesday’s midpoint and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.738 implies that the move up will probably extend to at least $3.77 and then fulfill the $3.85 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $3.330 within the next few days. The $3.85 target is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $4.201. Settling above this will strongly suggest that the corrective move down is complete.

Trading has been erratic for the past few days so caution is warranted. Should prices fell below $3.52 look for another attempt to take out key near-term support at $3.39. This level is in line with a few projections of the intra-day waves down from $4.201 and is the equal to target of the wave down from $3.738. It also aligns with the 20- and 200-day moving averages. Closing below $3.39 will clear the way for a test of $3.28 and possibly $3.20.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil has developed a bullish outlook in recent weeks. Last week’s close above the $63.9 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $63.73 implies that prices should eventually reach this wave’s $78.7 equal to (1.00) target.

For the near term, WTI crude oil shook off Monday’s pullback. Support at $73.0, near the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $66.01, held and prices settled just below the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $74.99. Today’s rise has put WTI crude oil in a position to challenge $74.8 again. Settling above this will take out the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $66.01. This will clear the way for a test of $75.4 and then the respective $76.0 and $76.7 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $66.01 and the first wave up from $63.73.

Nevertheless, there is still a modest chance for a deeper test of support soon given the daily KasePO and Slow Stochastic are overbought. Should the move up stall again and close below the $73.4 smaller than target of the wave down from $74.99 look for a test of the equal to (1.00) target and 200-day moving average at $72.7. Settling below $72.7 will shift the near-term odds in favor of testing the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $66.01 at $71.6 before the move up extends.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold’s move up failed to reach $2772 and stalled at $2761.3. The subsequent pullback and close below Wednesday’s open was bearish for the outlook ahead of the weekend. The decline from $2761.3 is probably a correction that suggests prices may consolidate again because the wave up from $2565 favors an eventual test of its $2808 equal to (1.00) target. However, a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2565 at $2686 is expected first. Closing below $2686 would warn that the move up is failing and call for the 50 and possibly 62 percent retracement at $2663 and $2640 to be challenged in the coming days.

That said, the move down from $2761.3 lacks a clear wave structure to drive prices much lower. Therefore, there is a reasonable chance for a test of $2724 and even $2738 first. The $2738 level is expected to hold. Overcoming $2738 would imply that the pullback was a short-lived correction and call for a test of key near-term resistance at $2771.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rallied today and settled just above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.639. The move up stalled just below the $3.42 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2.977 before pulling back. The $3.42 target is a potential stalling point. Even so, today’s rise was bullish for the outlook in the coming days.

A test of $3.42 is expected. Settling above this will call for a push to challenge the $3.50 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.800. This is also the XC (2.764) projection of the first wave up from $2.977. Settling above $3.50 would confirm a bullish outlook and open the way for $3.56 and then another key objective at $3.64.

Should the pullback from $3.404 extend look for initial support at $3.30. This level will likely hold. Taking out $3.30 will call for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.977 at $3.24 and possibly key near-term support at today’s $3.19 open and the 50 percent retracement.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil continues to trade in a narrowing range. Prices were poised to break lower out of the range coming into the week, but the move down stalled again and prices have risen for the first two days of the week. There is evidence that a larger test of resistance within the range might occur, so this is a tight call. Even so, the move up from $66.98 is likely a correction and the outlook continues to lean bearish and favors an eventual break lower out of the range.

Today’s long-legged doji reflects near-term uncertainty and warns that the corrective move up from $66.98 might already be complete. Taking out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $66.98 and the $67.72 swing low will invalidate the wave up from $66.98 that suggests a larger test of resistance might occur. This will also call for a test of a confluent target at $66.8, a close below which will open the way for a break lower out of the range to test $65.6 and lower.

That said, the wave up from $66.98 met its $68.9 smaller than (0.618) target today. This wave warns that a test of its $69.6 equal to (1.00) target might take place first. To reach $69.6 WTI crude oil must overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $70.51 at $69.2. The $69.6 level, if met, is expected to hold. Overcoming this would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $70.1. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $66.53 and connects to $72.0 and higher.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold failed to rise and challenge the $2704 equal to (1.00) target of the compound wave up from $2629.7 after testing the $2682 smaller than (0.618) target on Wednesday. Instead, prices fell and are poised to take out the $2644.1 and $2644.5 corrective swing lows of the waves up from $2629.7 that still show potential to extend to $2704 and higher. Moreover, the wave down from $2690.5 took out its smaller than target and is positioned to fulfill its $2635 equal to target. This is also the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2565. Settling below $2635 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming days and call for $2615 and then a test of the $2586 smaller than target of the wave down from $2826.

Should gold rise again and overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2682 at $2668 look for another test of $2682. Overcoming this would call for key near-term resistance at $2704 to be challenged.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

January natural gas fell to challenge the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $2.800 at $2.99 and the psychologically important $3.00 level today. The move down stalled at $2.977 and prices rose to form a daily hammer. This candlestick pattern warns that a test of Tuesday’s $3.12 midpoint might occur before the move down extends.

However, a larger move up from $2.977 will likely be a correction because Tuesday’s decline settled below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.800 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $3.656. This wave favors a test of its $2.79 equal to (1.00) target. Settling below $2.99 will call for $2.93 and $2.84, which then make a connection to $2.79.

That said, should natural gas overcome $3.12 look for a test of key near-term resistance at $3.22. This is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.639 and the confirmation point of today’s hammer. Settling above $3.22 and confirming the hammer will shift the near-term odds in favor of testing $3.31 and possibly the 62 percent retracement from $3.639 at $3.39 in the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil continues to trade in a weeks-long range. Each time prices have been positioned to break higher or lower out of the range a reversal has taken place. This happened again today. The wave down from $72.41 fulfilled its $67.9 smaller than (0.618) target and favored an eventual test of its $65.6 equal to (1.00) target. Such a move would have resulted in a break lower out of the range. However, prices rallied today and challenged the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $71.51 at $70.1. This level held on a closing basis but today’s rise confirmed Monday’s inverted hammer and the wave up from $67.71 calls for a test of its $70.7 equal to target. This is also the smaller than target of the wave up from $66.53. Closing above $71.7 will put WTI crude oil back in a position to attempt a break higher out of the range by closing above the $72.7 equal to target of this wave and the wave up from $66.32. The $72.7 objective is also in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $77.04 and the $72.41 confirmation point of a $66.4 double bottom.

Nonetheless, caution is still warranted because until the $71.51 swing high is overcome the wave down from $72.41 will have potential to extend to its $65.6 equal to target. Should the $70.1 level continue to hold and prices fall below the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $67.71 at $69.3 look for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $68.7. Taking out $68.7 will warn that the move up is failing again. Settling below the $67.9 smaller than target of the wave down from $71.51 will confirm this is the case and put the odds back in favor of WTI crude oil falling to $66.4 and $65.6.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

January WTI crude oil continues to trade in a weeks-long range. Each time WTI crude oil has been poised to break higher or lower out of the range a reversal has taken place. This looks to be the case again this week. The move up from the $66.4 double bottom was poised to break higher upon a close above the $72.6 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $66.32. However, Monday’s bearish engulfing line and today’s move below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $66.53 and smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $71.51 around $68.4 imply that another test of the bottom of the range will probably take place in the coming days.

The wave down from $71.51 calls for a test of its $67.4 equal to target. This will push prices below the $67.9 smaller than target of the wave down from $72.41. Settling below $67.9 will clear the way for an eventual test of this wave’s $65.6 equal to target, which is also the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $71.51. The connection to $65.6 is also made through the $66.3 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $71.51, which is in line with the $66.4 double bottom. Therefore, closing below $67.9 will put WTI crude oil in a position to break lower out of the trading range.

That said, the $68.4 target held on a closing basis and prices have risen from the $68.05 swing low this afternoon. The move up from $68.05 is likely a simple correction and is expected to hold the 38 percent retracement from $71.51 at $69.4. Overcoming this would call for a test of the 62 percent retracement and $70.3 swing high. Overcoming $70.3 would invalidate the wave down from $71.51 that calls for $67.4 and lower. This would also call for a test of key near-term resistance and the smaller than target of the wave up from $66.53 at $71.1. Settling above $71.1 would shift the odds in favor of WTI crude oil attempting to break higher out of the range again by settling above $72.8, a threshold that this split between the equal to target of the waves up from $66.32 and $66.53 and above the confirmation point of the $66.4 double bottom.