Natural Gas Price Forecast – October 30, 2024

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December natural gas settled a penny lower today and is still in a position to work its way lower in the coming days. The 78 percent retracement of the rise from $2.712 at $2.80 has been resilient and held on a closing basis for the past few days. Another test of $2.80 is expected tomorrow. Falling below this will call for the $2.77 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.919. This wave then connects to $2.72 as the equal to (1.00) target. The $2.72 objective is also in line with the smaller than target of the wave down from $3.101. Settling below $2.72 will clear the way for a move below the $2.712 swing low to challenge the $2.67 smaller than target of the wave down from $3.406.

Nevertheless, a bullish KasePO divergence on the $0.03 Kase Bar chart and the wave up from $2.770 warn that a test of $2.89 might take place first. This level is expected to hold. Overcoming $2.89 will call for key near-term resistance at $2.94 to be challenged. Settling above $2.94 would put the near-term odds in favor of challenging the 62 percent retracement from $3.101 at $2.98 and then the $3.01 smaller than target of the wave up from $2.712.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.