Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
Gold fell to nearly challenge the $2308.7 confirmation point of a double top that formed around $2474 a few weeks ago again. Prices have settled below the smaller than (0.618) targets of the waves down from $2477 and $2358.8. Therefore, the move down should now extend to these waves’ respective $2261 and $2303 equal to (1.00) targets. Such a move will take out the $2308.7 swing low, a close below which will confirm the double top that would then target $2143.
Tomorrow, look for a test of the $2296 smaller than target of the wave down from $2406.7. This wave also connects to $2261 as the equal to target. The $2261 level is crucial because it is also a highly confluent retracement level that lines up with the 100-day moving average. Therefore, a corrective test of resistance is anticipated before sustaining a close below $2261.
Should the move down stall again and prices rise tomorrow look for initial resistance at $2345. Closing above this would call for another attempt to overcome key near-term resistance at $2368.
