Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
Gold fell to test the $2156.2 swing low, smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2203, and 21 percent retracement of the rise from $1996.4 today. These levels around $2156 held on a closing basis. Even so, waves that meet their smaller than target typically extend to at least the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $2139. The move down is likely a correction, but near-term odds lean in favor of testing $2139 before the move up continues. Taking out $2156 will increase the odds for such a move within the next few days.
Nevertheless, the pullback from $2203 may be in the process of forming a flat descending triangle. This is a continuation pattern and would be bullish for the outlook given $2156 continues to hold. Should gold rise above $2175 early tomorrow look for a test of the $2185.6 swing high. Settling above this would confirm a break higher and put near-term odds in favor of reaching $2205 and higher in the coming days.
