Kase Articles

What type of articles are you interested in?*
- Primarily Energy and Hedging Related
- Primarily Technical Analysis and Trading Related
Primarily Energy and Hedging Related articles*
- Calendar Spreads vs. Price - Is There A Relationship?
  NYMEX @ the Market, March 2008 - This article discusses the results from a detailed study done by Kase that examined the relationship between energy market calendar spread and prices. The study answers the questions as to their relationship with one another and if that relationship is useful to a trader.
- Preparing to Manage Energy Costs: Basics for Small to Mid-Size Consumers
  American Ceramics Society Bulletin, October 2006 - This article explains the basics of starting a hedge program based on logical hedge methodologies for small and mid-sized end users. Different types of hedge strategies are discussed as well as important topics and decisions that are usually overlooked by inexperienced risk managers.
- Kase Reveals Technical Hedging Tips for Not-So-Technical Traders
  Electric Light & Power, Dec. 2000 - This article addresses technical hedging topics in a question and answer format. The topics covered include trading and hedging power, the importance of exits, and common hedging mistakes with tips on how to avoid them. Also addressed are basic ideas behind strategic (statistical) hedging.
- Market Secrets That Energy Hedgers Should Know
  Derivatives Strategy Magazine, December 1999 – Improve hedging by understanding seasonality of prices, defining when and how much to hedge, what happens when a futures contract expires, how far out to hedge, and how options strategies can help.
- Risk Management Checklist (Energy Hedging)
  Financial Engineering News, July 1998 - This article provides a logical step-by-step checklist designed for hedgers. The checklist helps determine elements such as exposures, risk appetite, and selection of hedge instruments.
- Hedging with Statistics
  NESA Energy Journal, March 1998 - This article explains a three step process based on a non-speculative approach to hedging, including determining exposure and risk appetite. The second step is developing a mechanical approach to hedging using statistics. The final step is the selection of reasonable instruments for the hedging process.
- Hedging is an Option for Producers
  American Oil and Gas Reporter, October 1997 - This article deals with the critical issues involved in deciding whether or not to hedge basis and the potential benefits, including correlation analysis, risk estimation, and dealing with short-covering spikes.
- Technical Differences and Similarities: Energy and Power
  Natural Gas Journal, Jan. 1997 - Addresses how similarities between energy and power may allow effective power trading, including lack of liquidity in power and the inability to store power which makes it more susceptible to disruptions.
- How to Cash in on the Cash Market (Managing Cash Market Risk)
  Energy Risk, March 1996 - Managing risk in the cash markets does not have to mean hedging exposure and then crossing one’s fingers. This article details how to measure risk and provides graphic and numeric examples of this process. In addition, the article identifies the various forms of risk taking in the cash market and details possible solutions
- Using Probability and Monte Carlo Simulations I
  Natural Gas Hedger, August/September 1995 – Part I of this two-part series deals with managing discretionary trading risk, involving taking off and replacing hedges. Use of probability theory and Monte Carlo simulations in setting trading limits and assessing the probable outcome of discretionary hedging activities is addressed, including multiple examples.
- Using Probability and Monte Carlo Simulations Part II
  Natural Gas Hedger, October/November 1995 - This article examines the difference between trending and random markets, and the relationship of volatility and risk. The article reviews how Monte Carlo simulations measure risk.
- Locking in Storage Profits Through Hedging
  Natural Gas Hedger June/July, 1995 - By selling gas and buying futures in a differed month, traders are able to lock in profits and free up storage. Using historical charts to evaluate futures spreads will provide a useful tool in determining when to use this effective method.
- Thinking Person’s Guide to Hedging
  Energy Risk, November 1994 - The article discusses ways to improve hedges by using both trading techniques as well as passive statistical hedges, including how to assess odds of success.
- Sailing with the Wind (Improving Hedges with Market Timing)
  Energy Risk, July 1994 - This presents a hypothetical company’s use of market timing to improve hedges.
- Look Before You Leap
  Energy Risk, April 1994 – The article discusses the nature of price risk and establishing realistic goals for risk management programs, taking into consideration differing risk to reward appetites.
- Hedging Without Futures
  National Petroleum News, October 1993 – This article discusses how to hedge in the over-the-counter market, especially floors or caps as well as other derivatives.
- Futures and Flexibility
  National Petroleum News, August 1993 – This article is about EFP’s (Exchange for Physical) and how they are useful to hedgers.
- Why Bother with Futures?
  National Petroleum News, June 1993 – Veteran trader and internationally recognized futures market expert Cynthia Kase explains how innovations in the energy markets, and the introduction of futures and their use in daily operations, continue to change the way business is done in the gasoline marketing industry.
- Defining Risk Management: A Strategic vs. Tactical Approach
  NYMEX Energy in the News, Fall 1992 - This article discusses strategic versus tactical approaches to risk management by providing examples of each approach and explains why it is important to realize the distinctions among the different approaches. The article does this by defining strategic risks and tactical risks and assists the reader in knowing when to use which approach.
- Volatility and Spreads
  IPE Pipeline, November 1992 - In this study, the IPE and NYMEX gasoline futures contracts are used to illustrate basic points on volatility and spreads, such as how it can be measured and how differing volatilities in two markets can affect the success of an arbitrage trade. The study first presents three alternative definitions of volatility and true range. Then the effects of volatility on spreads is examined in four detailed case studies with supporting tables and charts.
- Hedging Made Easy: A Guide for the Do-It-Yourselfer
  NYMEX Energy in the News, Winter 1991/1992 - This article discusses energy swaps and the steps needed for proper hedging with futures rather than using an over-the-counter broker, focusing on the calendar swap math. In many cases, the hedger can beat the OTC price with good hedge management and execution.
- Analyzing Basic Fundamentals of the U. S. Energy Market
  Futures, October 1991 - This article examines the API statistics (the American Petroleum Institute's Weekly Statistical Bulletin) and other fundamental factors related to the US oil market. The API is a weekly oil and petroleum product storage report that provides valuable information on storage levels and thus supply and demand. Although reporting is voluntary and often the data is five to twelve days old, the API can be a useful trading tool.
- Futures Enhance Wet Barrel Trading in Specialized Markets
  NYMEX Energy in the News, 1988 - This article deals with the use of futures to establish a price and to hedge a profit margin in NYMEX related markets, such as oil and gas. There are three methods that the article discusses in which the above goals may be met, including optimizing and hedging basis, and deciding when to lock in underlying price.
Primarily Technical Analysis and Trading Related*
- How Well Do Traditional Momentum Indicators Work?
  IFTA Journal, November 2007 - This article examines the effectiveness of signals generated by different types of momentum indicators including Stochastics, RSI, MACD and two proprietary Kase indicators called the KaseCD and Kase PeakOscillator.
- Peak Outs and Permissions
  The Technical Analyst Sept/Oct 2005. - Cynthia Kase explains how certain Kase StatWare indicators can anticipate a greater percentage of market turns and provide speedier confirmation of trading signals.
- A Divine Tool
  Energy Markets, July/August 2005 - This article describes the use of the special number Phi for forecasting and trading methodologies using technical analysis.
- Setting Stop-Losses Using Price Volatility
  The Technical Analyst, July/August 2005 - This article looks at setting stop-loss orders using range, volatility, and volatility skew. The Kase DevStops, which use this type of analysis, are discussed at length. There is also a discussion regarding an in depth study of volatility and skew. This is a must read for anyone that is using stop loss orders
- Tools for Technical Analysis
  Energy Markets, April 2005 - This article examines the different types of tools that technical analyst use on a daily basis to read the markets. This article is an introduction to technical analysis and how the different types of tools such as momentum indicators, candlesticks and geometric patters can help one to become a better trader on a consistent basis.
- Proof That Technical Analysis Really Works: Momentum Indicators
  Commodities Now, March 2005 - This article shows proof that technical momentum indicators really do work. It covers a published study that was performed by Kase on over 300 years of daily data on a range of commodity markets from grains, energy, currencies and indexes. The article shows the hard fast numbers and displays proof that technical indicators can predict market turns and behavior.
- The Two Faces of Momentum
  Stocks Futures & Options October 2003 - This article covers different aspects of momentum indicators. The article starts by giving a brief review of how to identify momentum exits. The article then covers a study that Kase did on the two faces of momentum. In the study, we compared different indicators based on how often a turn was proceeded by a signal and how often a signal was followed by a turn. These two sides of momentum are necessary to properly compare momentum indicators.
- Daytrader’s Doom
  Futures, August 1999 - This article looks methods to avoid losing whipsaw trades, including setting proper bar length, using conservative entries, setting stops, and using momentum exits.
- Managing Trade Risk
  Trader's Catalog & Resource Guide, July 1999 - This article explains how to use risk of ruin calculations to determine trade size and place effective stops.
- The Best Momentum Indicators
  Bridge Trader, May/June 1997 - This article compares traditional momentum indicator performance to Kase momentum indicators.
- Building a Trading Framework
  Futures, November, 1996 - This article explains how to construct a "forecast grid", and trading strategy that incorporates a forecast, with simple math in a clear step-by-step format.
- Putting the Odds on Your Side (Part I/III of Series)
  Futures, April 1996 – Part I explains how Kase’s statistically based indicators have outperformed standard trading tools.
- Multi-Dimensional Trading (Part II/III of Series)
  Futures, May 1996 – This second article covers Kase’s momentum indicators and stops, and explains how Kase employs a higher time frame filter to improve trading.
- Statistics in Action (Part III/III of Series)
  Futures, June 1996 – Part III synthesizes the Kase techniques explained in Part I and II into a coherent systematic approach to technical trading.
- New High-Probability Indicators
  NYMEX Energy in the News, Spring 1996 – This article discusses the concept of random walk and the Random Walk Index, and introduces early versions of the Kase momentum indicators –the Kase PeakOscillator and its derivative, the KaseCD.
- Simplified Momentum Filters Improve Trading
  Futures, December 1993 - This article discusses how Kase uses a moving multiple bar length Stochastic to filter and confirm entry signals.
- Momentum Divergence
  NYMEX Energy in the News, Fall/Winter 1993 - This article studies the performance of traditional momentum indicators on the 15^th anniversary of the HO contract, using historical HO data.
- Redefining Volatility and Position Risk
  Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, Oct. 1993 – This article explains how volatility calculations play into Kase DevStop math, and how stops are used to determine position risk.
- The Kase Dev-Stop: Accounting for Volatility, Variance and Skew
  International Federation of Technical Analysts, Journal of Technical Analysis Summer 1993 - This technical article discusses the Kase DevStops, including its development process, supporting research, variance, and explanation of how to use the three levels of stops.
- Choosing a Time Bar Length
  Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, August 1991 – This article explains how to properly divide the trading day into bar intervals, with special emphasis on Fibonacci numbers and weighting the end bar.
- Knowing When to Step Back from the Market
  Futures, June 1991 - This article explains when to back off trading using the Average Directional Index (ADX) and Directional Movement Index (DMI) indicators.
- Using Stochastics to Forecast Market Moves
  NYMEX Energy in the News, Spring 1991 - This article identifies two Stochastic indicator formations helpful in estimating market moves, the double bottom retracement and double money breakthrough.
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